Should You Invest in Quantum Computing Inc?

Quantum computing promises to change everything — someday. The idea is intoxicating: machines that solve in seconds what takes classical computers millennia. But the gap between theory and commercialization remains vast. Even industry leaders like IBM and Google say real revenue is a decade away.

Despite that, the market has rewarded small players like Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) with multi-billion-dollar valuations on microscopic sales.

Why Quantum Computing Inc. Feels Like a Bubble

1. Wild Valuation.
QUBT trades at a $4.1B market cap on under $400K in revenue — a fantasy multiple of 12,657× sales.

2. No Real Business according to Iceberg Research.
Its “foundry” sits in a suburban office park lacking necessary features for a chip foundry, and its quantum machine generates no meaningful sales.

3. Insider Cash-Out.
Management has sold shares into every rally and issued 22M new shares in six months — clear signs of distribution, not conviction.

4. Funded by Hype, Not Growth.
The company’s cash pile comes from equity raises, not operations. It’s fueled by enthusiasm, not earnings.

5. Industry Decades Away.
Even IBM and Google admit quantum computing is 10–20 years from commercialization. QUBT pretending it’s ready today is the biggest tell.

The quantum computing industry is competitive and rapidly evolving. Quantum Computing Inc faces big players such as IBM, Google, and Microsoft, each with billion-dollar R&D budgets and profitable businesses. 

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang called quantum technology “decades away” and questioned “how a quantum company could even be public.” His new R&D center partnered with Quantinuum, QuEra, and Quantum Machines — not Quantum Computing Inc. That exclusion speaks volumes. He questioned “how a quantum company could even be public.

Scaling quantum systems isn’t linear — it’s exponential pain. One qubit’s error can ripple across the system.

The Smarter the Story, the Harder the Fall

The irony of speculative manias is that they often attract the most intelligent people. Not the wisest — the smartest. The difference matters.

Smart people love puzzles; wise people love probabilities. Smart investors ask, “What if this works?” Wise investors ask, “What happens if it doesn’t?”

QUBT’s story is tailor-made for the former: room-temperature quantum computers, photonic chips that outpace physics itself, partnerships with NASA.

But scratch the surface, and it’s not innovation — it’s imagination. The “quantum foundry” they claim to operate? It’s in a suburban office park in Arizona, with no industrial loading bays. Their “quantum machine” — the DIRAC-3 — can be rented online for $1,000 an hour. Based on filings, almost no one does.

Yet the stock is up over 200% in six months, with a market cap north of $4.1 billion.

It’s not a valuation story. It’s a psychology story.

Why Smart People Fall for Dumb Things

Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel-winning psychologist, once said:

“We’re blind to our blindness. We have very little idea of how little we know.”

That’s what makes bubbles seductive — they speak to our need to feel ahead of the curve. To belong to the smart minority that “gets it early.”

Investors in QUBT aren’t irrational. They’re overconfident. They think they see the future — that buying a zero-revenue “quantum” stock is proof of vision, not vulnerability.

It’s the same impulse that made people buy tulips in 1637, dot-com stocks in 1999, and metaverse land in 2021. The tools change, but the wiring doesn’t.

History Repeats, Just With Fancier Acronyms

I remember 2017, when a beverage company renamed itself Long Island Blockchain Corp. and saw its stock jump 500%.

Today, Quantum Computing Inc. plays the same game, just with shinier jargon. Swap “blockchain” for “quantum,” add a NASA press release, and sprinkle in some AI references for good measure.

The story’s the same: promise the future, deliver dilution.

The Real Lesson: Intelligence Isn’t an Edge

Markets have a way of humbling the clever and rewarding the patient.

In every cycle, the people who survive aren’t the ones who saw furthest into the future — they’re the ones who didn’t overpay for it.

QUBT might eventually build something valuable. Maybe their photonic chips matter someday. But at 4.1 billion dollars and $0.0004 billion in sales, this isn’t investing — it’s story speculation.

That’s fine if you know you’re gambling. The danger is when you think you’re not.

What Investors Should Actually Do

I don’t dismiss quantum computing — it will change the world.
But change and profit are not synonyms, and timing is everything.

Here’s how I’m positioning around the “quantum bubble”:

1. Avoid the pure plays.
QUBT and Rigetti (RGTI) are speculative instruments, not investments. They are R&D businesses.

2. Own the infrastructure.
If quantum ever scales, it’ll run on chips from Nvidia, AMD, ASML, and TSMC. These are the “pick and shovel” plays. Their valuation is also currently stretched.

3. Bet on the integrators.
Alphabet (Google),IBM and Microsoft already control the cloud ecosystems where quantum will live. They can afford the patience.

4. Size it like a startup.
Treat quantum exposure as a venture sleeve — 0.5%–1% of your portfolio. Enough to participate if the revolution happens, small enough to ignore if it doesn’t.

In bubbles, survival isn’t about brilliance — it’s about restraint.

SCC Rating: 40% |  Sell

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